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Replace President Sombrotto... (part 2).
And second, the internet connects us together in a way unimaginable back in 1994. The internet provides a path to reach and communicate across the country with the 300,000 members of the NALC. It combines the positive personal aspects of the word of mouth method with the wide ranging scope of a national mailing. All this at little cost.
Put these two together and this election has the makings of a real horse race. With a turnout of 100,000 a challenger like Michael Willadsen needs 50,001 to win. Assuming the old axiom that the outsider always starts with the 20% of the electorate who are inherently disgruntled, means that Michael Willadsen will start with a built in base of 20,000 votes. To win then, Michael Willadsen doesnt need to find 50,001 votes, but just 30,001 additional votes. And unlike John Gaunce he isnt running against an entrenched popular incumbent like Vince Sombrotto. Instead, his opponent is the unknown and untested Bill Young.
As unknown and untested as Bill Young may be , he is not blind to these numbers. He and his backers will spare no expense in this election. Undoubtedly Mr. Young has access to thousands of dollars raised over the years and deposited in political action committees (pacs) around the country. These pacs provide a powerful political reserve which can be tapped during the campaign. Of course the first function of these pacs is to discourage potential challengers. Fortunately in this case, with Michael Willadsen already being nominated and on the ballot, Bill Youngs first line of defense has fallen.
The second function of these pacs is being exercised. Currently Bill Young is tapping these accounts to fund his campaign. In a regular partisan election like the one for governor, a well funded campaign would spend their resources on polling, phone banking, media advisors, television ads, direct mailings, and fundraisers. With the possible exception of direct mailing these are all extraneous and too expensive in reaching the carriers who will be voting in this election . Even direct mail will not be cheap. Each national mailing to the 300,000 members of the NALC will cost Bill Youngs campaign over $100,000.
Bill Youngs ability to fund a couple of membership wide mailers seems like a tremendous advantage. But upon closer examination the effectiveness of these mailings comes into question. Over 2/3 of the 300,000 members receiving the mailing wont be voting. This leaves his effective coverage at 100,000. History shows that 1/5 of these 100,000 voters will fall into the disgruntled category and will even before receiving the mailer already have decided to vote for the outsider. This reduces his effective coverage to 80,000. Direct mailing surveys show that political candidates like Bill Young are lucky if 1/2 of those receiving their mailer bother to open and read them. This drops his effective coverage to 40,000. And probably 1/2 of those remaining 40,000 voters are already his supporters. Which means that Bill Youngs original 300,000 piece mailer costing $100,000 will only effectively reach and be read by 20,000 of the undecided voters.
What must be even more troubling to Mr. Young is that no matter how many mailers he sends, the results will remain constant. The effectiveness of his mailers will only improve if human nature changes between now and his next mailer. Its pretty safe to assume that human nature isnt going to change anytime soon so that leaves Mr. Young in need of another method of getting his message out. Unfortunately for him , phone banking has lost most of its punch as people increasingly screen their calls. And though television is a powerful medium, it is much too expensive.
This leaves Mr. Young with one other way of contacting the voting membership. Its the most difficult one to build and run. Yet its the most effective one in targeting and persuading voters. Its means are often mimicked by the direct mailers, webmasters, and television advertisers. Yet these means are impossible to master with money alone. Yep, a true grassroots organization is still the most cost effective method of targeting and persuading voters. This is particularly true in union elections.
Here is where Michael Willadsen has the advantage over Bill Young. A true successful grassroots organization is built from the ground up not from the top down. It depends on a growing core of committed (crazed) organizers who know how to build an inclusive dynamic organization. An organization of this type depends on effort and ingenuity not money. And because a grass roots organizations growth is dependent on the depth of its roots into community, it has the ability to reach, touch, and pull groups of voters who are normally passed over or ignored.
Well, this grassroots stuff sounds good on paper. And it is interesting to see that less than 30,000 of those voters currently undecided will determine who the next President of the NALC will be. But it still leaves the question of how Michael Willadsen gains those additional 30,000 votes he needs to win this election.
Of course the first requirement of a winning campaign is a qualified candidate. Fortunately, in this election there is such a candidate Michael L. Willadsen. He is 45 years old, married with two children, a 4 year Navy veteran, and a Branch President for the past 14 years. It should not be taken for granted that a candidate with his background and qualifications appears very often. The last time there was such a candidate was 8 years ago when John Gaunce ran. His web site lays out in much greater detail both his experience and vision for the office: http://hometown.aol.com/nalc86/page1.html
These days the second requirement of a winning campaign is creating and running a web site. On it should be information detailing the candidates background, experience, and vision for the NALC. Michael Willadsen has done this. Bill Young has not.
Even in the age of the internet a candidate with a group of supporters and a web site doesnt constitute a grassroots organization . These three elements wont reach their maximum potential and become a true grassroots effort until they become organized. The success of a grassroots campaign will be measured in how well integrated the web site is with the traditional grassroots methods. It is this marriage of the traditional strengths of grassroots organizing with the economical reach of the internet that will prove to be the third and key requirement of the winning campaign in this election.
What will this type of a grassroots organization look like? It wont be top heavy and hierarchical like the Postal Service or old fashioned campaigns. Instead, imagine a lean decentralized one filled with hundreds of letter carriers acting as independent organizers inside as well as outside of their offices. They will be talking about Michael Willadsen to coworkers, friends, neighbors, and family as well as collecting their names, addresses, phone numbers, and e-mail addresses in order to continually communicate with them during the election.
How will word on Michael Willadsen be sown and supporters harvested?
1. Next to Michael Willadsen you are his best advocate. Your word and actions mean more to the carriers you know and meet than any campaign generated letter, ad, e-mail, web site, flyer, recorded phone message, or group endorsement. Figure out a brief reason why you are voting for Michael Willadsen. Example:
If management continues their incessant harassment of carriers and working conditions continue to worsen I dont know if I can make it to retirement. This is not an option for my family so thats why Im out here working for Michael Willadsen. He has the determination to make a difference.
Conviction is as important as content. The more personally you connect with a voter the stronger their commitment will be for Michael Willadsen. The voter will be voting for Michael Willadsen for you. In sales terms, you are selling yourself.
2. Read the information on his web site http://hometown.aol.com/nalc86/page1.html
Know candidates background (age, family,veteran), experience (14 year President of 1,700 member Branch 86), and vision of NALC (improve working conditions and provide better training for stewards). Dont fake a questions answer when not known. Instead, ask for phone or e-mail and contact them when answer is found. Reply promptly. Bad news is better than no news. The followup, not the answer is the deal closer.
3. Print flyers from Michael Willadsens or this web site. Design your own if you have a better idea. Always carry a few flyers with you. Sign flyers (in own handwriting ) with your e-mail and phone number as well as your name. Some people prefer the anonymity of the internet while others prefer the immediacy of the phone. Encourage connections. Different people make different connections. When possible personalize them even more with a brief hand written message on them.
4. Buy a yellow legal pad and make it your Organizers Book. List every letter carrier you know and be sure to leave space beside each of the names for their e-mail, phone #, address, and a spot for individual notes. Include the carriers within your office. Dont forget carriers you know from outside your office. Remember friends, relatives, or neighbors who are carriers. Dont forget the carrier and the T-6 relief carrier who delivers to your own home and spouses workplace. Work this Book. Treasure this Book.
5. Contact each carrier on your list and listen to hear how they feel about the upcoming election. Most carriers wont have an opinion so take this opportunity to let them know that the ballots will be mailed out October 1st and that you support Michael Willadsen. Hand them a flyer. Ask if they have any additional questions and encourage them to check out the web site. Place a check by their name indicating that they have been contacted along with a word or note detailing your conversation. Periodically e-mail or send the list of supporters you find to Michael Willadsen or this web site so that a master list can be kept.
6. If carriers seem interested ask them to help. Offer them a variety of specific tasks: They can give you a list of the carriers they know, call carriers they know, distribute flyers in their offices break room, hang a flyer by their own mailbox, contact other friends and relatives or they can become organizers like yourself. Take the time to personally connect with each carrier especially those willing to become organizers. Developing new organizers is key.
7. When ballots are mailed out on Oct. 1 be sure to remind your list to vote and return their ballots. Place a second check by their names when you are convinced they have voted. The week before and the week after the ballots come out will be the most critical because thats when those who are voting are most likely to vote. Follow up. Follow up.
8. Hand out flyers in the morning on your day off at other offices. The morning is preferable to evening because the start times are more closely bunched than end times (due to OT). Look for a new organizer to replace yourself at each office. Retired postal workers may be interested in assisting you here as well as other retired folks.
9. Hand out flyers and speak out at your local Branch and Steward meetings. Dont forget to mention Michael Willadsens web site address or this one. Be positive. Michael Willadsen is running to win.
10. In your Organizers Notebook make a second list of non-carrier friends, family, neighbors, clerks, and mail handlers who will put a flyer by their mailbox and talk with their carrier. A coke handed out with the flyer does wonders. Each married working couple deals with 6 different letter carriers: the regular and T-6 relief carrier at home as well as the regular and T-6 at each of their two jobs. When questioned about their in this election patrons may note they are tired of late deliveries and have heard that Michael Willadsen will push for earlier starting times. Look for an organizer from these non-carriers. Remember retired folks. As an organizer your goal is to replace or duplicate yourself. Take the time when a person seems promising. Politely cut losses when a person is argumentative.
Will Michael Willadsen win? At this time nobody knows. Anyone who says they do should be handicapping horses for a living. What is known is that Bill Young has sat quietly behind his desk at National for the past 16 years while Managed Service Points (scanning), Delivery Point Sequence (DPS), later start times, and increased mandatory overtime have all been dumped on the carriers. As President of the NALC Michael Willadsen, who has carried DPS mail and knows what it is like, will for a change be consistently telling and showing postal managers what additional burdens their new regulations have added to the daily duties of the carriers. The upside of having Michael Willadsen elected President of the NALC is that we would finally have someone in office as committed to improving the working conditions and atmosphere of the workroom floor as we have had in past in improving our pay. Michael Willadsen has the determination to make the difference.
The turnout in this election very well could be lower than 100,000 in 1994. With the contract settled for the next 4 years and Sombrotto not running many carriers will skip voting this time. If this happens and Michael Willadsen loses by only a few votes, I dont want any regrets. Not to take advantage of this rare opportunity to work for a candidate committed to changing the callous conditions of the workroom floor would be criminal--or at least postal.
When it is all said and done, Woody Allen might be right. Life really is all timing. If this is the case, then we are as ready as well ever be..
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